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The Illiquid Edge's avatar

The combined effect of these market disruptions has been dramatic. Export data shows TiO₂ shipments plummeted in April 2025 before reaching their lowest point in May 2025, with total export volume down 42% compared to the same period in 2024.

The Illiquid Edge's avatar

$TROX is very interesting as well. (as a levered equity) See this write up on VIC: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/TRONOX_HOLDINGS_PLC/0105691819

The Illiquid Edge's avatar

I think this one is interesting: https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/healthy-amounts-of-ilmenite?r=252ibd&utm_medium=ios

Basically getting some free titania mines that are soon to come on line.

Jacob's avatar

Thanks for the primer and congratulations for the Tronox pick. I bought 2 months ago Kronos because insiders bought it, it was relatively cheap and price of TiO2 were rising according to Business analytiq. I struggle to find more info on this industry and just accepted that its too small to get monthly information. You proved me wrong and I applause you for the amount of sources you had and that you put links into the write up. Having FBI source is next level lol. Do you know by chance if eurostat reports monthly prices of TiO2? and how have you found these free reports? Is it just by simply googling or do you use these sources offen? And in your dcf, TRONOX had negative equity value, what were the catalyst that changed your opinion about TROX?

The Illiquid Edge's avatar

Great question. Sorry, I include a lot of links, but I dont curate them. That model is using historic earnigns to model out an EV. HOWEVER it appears that TROX is at an inflection, near future earnings should inflect for a variety of reasons that will deviate it from history.

mendo's avatar

What do you think of KMR - Kenmare Resources which produces ilmenite?

The Illiquid Edge's avatar

Them and iluka seemed alright.

Trox was more undervalued. And I think it might be a few years before we can project the miners well enough.

Mahad Ahmed's avatar

Your post shines a light on an undercovered commodity with enticing market fundamentals

I recently covered Kenmare Resources which produces the key ingredient in TiO2 production; ilmenite. An interesting aspect of these products is the increase in consumption as GDP per capita increases.