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Oliver Sung's avatar

Thanks for the mention!

MoodyP's avatar

Thank you for sharing all this. I’ll be pledging my support as I think your macro analysis fits my general themes, but with more detail.

I had my best year ever, *37.2% and that is with a 60% allocation to cash. 23% gold and silver. 17% equities, mostly mining and energy which are the only two industries I understand. Plus a foreign bond fund that delivered 12%. Onward to 2026.

MoodyP's avatar

One other thing. It’s awesome that you are able to do this while you are in college. Other than dabbling in mining stocks with my dad, I didn’t do any of my own investing until after I retired, went sailing for 7 years, and then figured I needed something to do. That was in 2020. I decided to stick with what I know something about. Shipping. Mining. Energy.

The first couple years were pretty sketchy. But starting in 2023 I finally figured out how not to lose money. And 2024 and 2025 have been great.

I laughed thinking about you doing this while going to college. When I was in college there were no computers, a single trade took a phone call to a broker and cost 14.95, and the drinking age was 18. The last factor alone would have been enough to sink anyone even considering trading. Pitchers of cheap beer were 3 bucks. Let’s see. 5 pitchers or one trade? Easy call.

The Illiquid Edge's avatar

Funny. I always thought this was something I would be doing when I was retired. But then I thought "Why wait?"

MoodyP's avatar

You definitely have a gift! For writing as well.

I learned hard lessons in 2000 and 2008 that letting someone else manage the bulk of one’s investments can end badly. So when I learn about young people like you who are learning how to take care of their own, I am always impressed, and a wee bit jealous.

You do have the advantage of technology and access and free trades unavailable to those of us well past our prime. So there is that.

But we did have way better music. IMO anyway. Haha.

The Illiquid Edge's avatar

congrats!

Thoughts on oil E&P this year? Looks pretty bleak to me.

MoodyP's avatar

Bleak. I currently have 5 positions. $XOM $GLNG $CNQ $TRMLF $PBRA

Plus $XOP just in case E&P recovers 2nd half. They are all small positions @.5 or less. No stops. I have a theory but no conviction. Oil follows silver w/about a 70% correlation 6-12 months post breakout. But since silver broke out more than a year ago so I guess we are in the 30% pool. Still, it can’t stay below $70 forever. So I’ll just collect a little income and wait